Burnley vs Man City

🎯 PICK #1 — CONTRARIAN ⚽ Burnley vs Man City | Total Goals Over 2.5 📊 Pick: NO (betting Under 2.5 goals) 📊 Kalshi: $0.67 (67%) | 🧮 Poisson: 47.8% ✅ Edge: +19.2% | 💰 Stake: $50 (2.5%) | 💎 EV: +$9.60 📈 Volumen: $226 (tier $200-500, edge ≥10% cumplido) Razón: Kalshi sobreestima scoring capacity en este matchup. Poisson xG: Burnley 0.56 - Man City 2.04 (total 2.61). Modelo predice solo 47.8% chance Over 2.5 vs mercado en 67%. City domina pero Burnley ultra-defensivo limita scoring opportunities. Divergencia de +19.2 puntos en mercado con liquidez. NO Over 2.5 = bet en 0-2 goals total. --- ##